Confidence Interval

 Write a paragraph to explain your results. State you guess and the computed probability of success from Project #2. Show the formulas you used to compute the 90%, 95% and the 99% confidence intervals, and state each confidence interval. Explain if any of these intervals contain your original guess.  Do you consider your original guess accurate or inaccurate?  

Omar Lewis

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Binomial Probability Experiment

The chosen binomial experiment is to ask

1

00 college students about their age. For the experiment to me deemed successful, the age group has to be between

1

8

years and

3

0 years (Illowsky, Dean, & Illowsky,

2

01

7

). It is estimated there is

6

0% success rate.

The results of the experiments are as follows:

Success

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

Failure

21

Success

Success

30

Failure

Success

Failure

35

Failure

44

Failure

Success

18

Success

19

Success

Success

21

35

Failure

22

Failure

Failure

23

Success

25

26

Success

26

Failure

27

31

Failure

28

21

Success

23

Success

30

35

Failure

31

Failure

32

34

Failure

33

Failure

34

25

Success

35

43

Failure

36

27

Success

37

27

Success

38

31

Failure

39

38

Failure

34

Failure

41

Failure

42

18

Success

43

22

Success

44

17

Success

30

Failure

19

Success

26

Success

33

Failure

42

Failure

42

Failure

Success

21

 

Failure

29

Students

Age

Success

or

Failure

1

21

Success
2

37

Failure
3

18

4

36

5

44

6

31

7

42

8

30

9

34

10

11

26

12

13

25

14

35

15

16

17

28

27

19

20

22

43

23

38

24

39

29

32

33

40

41

45

46

47

48

49

50

 

From the results of the above test, the probability of success was 21/50= .42= 42%

The reason why there 42% success rate is that there are many support staff in colleges whose age varies greatly. It is also possible to find old students (Illowsky, Dean, & Illowsky, 2017).

2

Instructions for Project 3 Assignment
:

Use the results of Project #2. Recall that you performed a binomial probability experiment 50 times. In Project #3, you will calculate a 90% confidence interval, a 95% confidence interval, and a 99% confidence interval for the true probability of success

Hints: Suppose, you guessed that there would be 28 successes i.e. p = .56 or 56%. After the actual experiment was done, you got 24 successes which gives a result of p = .48 or 48% and q = .52 or 52%. Therefore, the actual probability deviates from the guess 56%. Use the computed values of p and q when computing the confidence intervals (not your guess.)

Write a paragraph to explain your results. State you guess and the computed probability of success from Project #2. Show the formulas you used to compute the 90%, 95% and the 99% confidence intervals, and state each confidence interval. Explain if any of these intervals contain your original guess. Do you consider your original guess accurate or inaccurate?

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