In turning in your homework, you are asserting the following:
The answers represent your own the work.
You did not copy answers from any other students, copied their files or portions thereof, took
screenshots of their work, or access any answers through websites that may have obtained
this homework and posted the answers.
You can consult with other students in your class, but they did NOT send you their file, or a
part of their file, that you then copy and paste into your own file and claim as your own work,
or copy their write-up, changing a few words here and there. You did not take screenshots
of their work. Similarly, if you are being asked for help, you should not email your completed
file to the student(s) who asking for help.
To do any of these things constitutes academic misconduct, and will result in an F for the course.
TYPE YOUR NAME BELOW IN ROW 22 ATTESTING THAT THIS ASSIGNMENT REPRESENTS YOUR
OWN WORK AND YOU DID NOT SEND YOUR FILE TO ANYONE ELSE
EX 2.26
smoothing constant
0.3
Year
Month
Enrollment
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
806
814
826
820
1013
904
900
1111
1119
902
908
904
962
963
974
976
1172
1179
1168
1159
1165
1175
929
940
947
953
1016
1017
1035
1273
1015
1013
1015
973
973
961
968
1227
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
5 month
Moving
Average
5 month
Moving
Average
Absolute
Error
Smoothing
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November Forecast
Sum
show your regression results below
1232
1234
1388
1390
1112
1130
1136
1125
1130
1084
1086
1374
1369
1373
thing constant
Smoothing
Absolute
Error
Regression
Regression
Absolute
Error
Answer a
Answer d (put plot somewhere here
Answer b
Answer c
Answer e
5-MA
MAD
MAPE
Answer f
Smoothing Regression
EX 7.10
a. Core Level of FTEs
Hours of Care required by
Physical Therapist
Center of Excellence
(Assume 8 hours per day per FTE)
Coverage Factor
1. Required coverage days per year
(assume 365 days per year)
2. Weekend days per year (assume 52
weeks/year, each weekend has 2 days)
Staffing Plan
5/40 plan
3. Benefit Days
Holidays
Sick days
Vacation
Total benefit days
4. Total allowance days (2)+(3)
5. Total available days (1)-(4)
6. Coverage factor (1)/(5)
b. Adjusted FTEs using 5/40 plan
Center of Excellence
c. Sensitivity
Plus 10% change in time for
Hours of Care required by
Physical Therapist
Center of Excellence Hrs of PT care
required
Unadjusted Physical Therapist FTEs
Adjusted Physical Therapist FTEs
Unadjusted FTEs
Physical Therapist
Minus 10% change in time for
Hours of Care required by
Physical Therapist
UCLA HLTADM 413 Operations Management in Healthcare
Homework Module 8
Forecasting and Staffing
Your organization has a Medicaid health plan, and it would like you to develop an enrollment prediction model
as described in problem 2.26 on page 77 of the Analytics text, completing questions a through f in the problem.
In addition, your organization would like you to calculate FTE staffing needs for its Spinal Cord Injury Center of
Excellence as described in problem 7.10 on pages 277-278 of the Analytics text, completing questions a through
c. The Excel file for both of your requested analyses is provided.
Point allocations for the problem is 50 points. Problem 2.26 is 35 points. Problem 7.10 is 15 points.
The grading is based on completing the analytics correctly. Even if you arrive at the correct answers, full credit
will not be given if you hardwired in numbers into your formulas, rather than inserting the appropriate cell
references.
Note that in turning in your homework, you are asserting the following:
• The answers represent your own work. You did not copy answers from any other students, or access any
of this class’s previous years’ materials to complete this work.
• You can consult with other students in your class, but they should NOT send you their file, or a part of
their file, that you then copy and paste into your own file and claim as your own work, or copy their
write-up, changing a few words here and there. If a fellow student offers some help to you via zoom or
other online collaboration tool, you did NOT take screenshots of their work they may have shown you.
• Similarly, if you are being asked for help, you should not email your completed file to the student(s) who
is asking for help.
• To do any of these things constitutes academic misconduct and will result in an F for the course.
To submit your work:
1. TYPE YOUR NAME in the Excel worksheet called Academic Conduct Signature to verify that the work you
are turning in represents your own work.
2. Rename the Excel file with hw8
3. Submit the Excel file to Canvas. Do NOT email the file to me.
©Sandra Potthoff, PhD 2021
Forecasting and Staffing
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