# homework 3

Group 1 Group 2
Fraction of population
0.348
0.652
Prob. of getting
0.251sick if unvaccinated
0.163
Option 1
Group 1 sick
Group 2 sick
Total sick
Option 2
Option chosen
Econ 5, Project 3
Due Date: Feb 3rd, by 7:00pm Pacific Time
You can submit your Excel spreadsheet AS MANY TIMES AS YOU WANT. You will see your score each time.
Your LAST SUBMISSION’s score will be your score for the project. Autograder will only score the numeric
parts of the assignment, the graphs will be graded by your TA after the due date so they cannot be revised.
Overview
In this project, suppose that you are the economic adviser to a small island nation of 1 million people in the
Pacific Ocean. The country’s leader has just informed you that a nearby island has just had an outbreak of a new
illness, the clownfish influenza. Since it is not travel season, you can expect one week before an infected person
visits your island. You are given the task of developing a plan to minimize the economic impact to the island. For
simplicity, assume each sick person loses 4 days of productivity, and experiences no other ill effects.
Over the next week, your task is to identify a plan that will minimize the expected number of people who will get
sick from the clownfish influenza. You have been given a \$500,000 budget, and you can administer as many
vaccine jabs as you want for \$1 each. (No person needs more than one jab, assume that any vaccinated person will
not get the clownfish influenza, and assume that everybody is willing to get a jab if offered one.)
Suppose that previous work on similar strains of influenza lead you to believe there are two groups in the
population, with each group having a different probability of getting sick if not vaccinated:
1. Group 1 is in the high-risk group, with a higher probability of getting sick if unvaccinated.
2. Group 2 is in the low-risk group, with a lower probability of getting sick if unvaccinated.
Due to the limited amount of time before people start getting infected, you only have two options:

You can vaccinate 500,000 people at random over the next week.
You can spend \$100,000 to identify the high-risk group, and vaccinate the whole group; the remaining
vaccines would be given to the low-risk group; note only 400,000 people would get vaccinated
You must complete all parts of the following assignment in the required format so that it can be graded. Failure to
submit all work and answers in the required format will result in you receiving no points for the sections that are
insights we hope you gain from these exercises in the section after the project is due.
The data for this project will be sent to you by e-mail at least 7 days before it is due.
Below is a short description of the variables you will be using for Project 3:
Cell B2: Probability of being in Group 1
Cell B3: Given that you are in Group 1, the probability of catching the Clownfish Influenza if unvaccinated
Cell C2: Probability of being in Group 2
Cell C3: Given that you are in Group 2, the probability of catching the Clownfish Influenza if unvaccinated
General Instructions:
• Make sure your capitalization is correct for any non-numeric entries as the autograder is case
sensitive.
• Dataset sent to each student is different. Do not share your dataset with others.
Excel Instructions:
• The Excel spreadsheet you submit must have a title of the following form: Project3.xlsx.
• Make sure Sheet 1 in your Excel file includes all calculations, answers, and graphs. Only Sheet 1
• Make sure Sheet 1 is formatted as specified in the instructions; autograder will only grade entries
that are in the correct cells.
• You MUST use Excel, NOT Google Sheets, NOT Numbers. Make sure you download the file as
an Excel file, do NOT cut and paste to an Excel spreadsheet as you might mess up the format and
Graph Instructions:
• All graphs must also be submitted as a single PDF with titled Project3.pdf as instructed below.
• All graphs MUST include the following:
o A title that describes the main point.
o A graph number as described in the instructions. The graph number must be at the
beginning of the graph title.
o Meaningful, readable labels for axes and categories.
o A legend when it necessary.
o The graph must be self-explanatory, i.e. someone who is not familiar with the context and
data could understand its main message.
Required Elements (all elements must be in Sheet 1 in your Excel file)
(1) Calculate the expected number of people who will get sick in each group if the first option is chosen.
If this is chosen, 500,000 people will be vaccinated at random. Calculate the expected number of
sick people in Group 1 in Cell B10. Calculate the expected number of sick people in Group 2 in Cell
B11. Calculate the expected total number of sick people in Cell B12.
(2) Calculate the expected number of people who will get sick in each group if the second option is
chosen. If this is chosen, 400,000 vaccines will be available. All people in Group 1 will be
vaccinated, with remaining vaccines given to the remaining people at random. Enter the number of
sick people in Group 1 in Cell C10. Calculate the expected number of sick people in Group 2 in Cell
C11. Calculate the expected total number of sick people in Cell C12.
(3) Graph 1: Plot expected number of cases for each group (high-risk and low-risk) for both options on a
single graph. Use a 2-D clustered column chart. Include labels for each group and vaccination
option. Do not change the minimum or maximum values on the vertical axis.
(4) Graph 2: Plot total expected number of cases for both options on a single graph. Use a 2-D clustered
column chart. Include labels for each vaccination option. Have the minimum value on the vertical
axis set at 89,000, and do not change the maximum value on the vertical axis.
(5) In Cell E2, enter the number 1 if the first option (vaccinating 500,000 people at random) leads to the
fewest expected sicknesses. Enter the number 2 if the second option (vaccinating 400,000 people)
leads to the fewest expected sicknesses.
Come to section prepared to discuss the importance of conditional probability on decision-making.

for the leaderboard. A leaderboard is a tool that allows you to monitor accuracy and timing of
your submission relative to others in the class.
given that the leaderboard is visible to all students in the class. Use the same leaderboard name
for all submissions this quarter.
name to be uniquely identified, you can type Optout Otter as your leaderboard name.
DO NOT leave the leaderboard name blank, your submission will not be processed.
known only to that particular student and course instructors.
Leaderboard ranks all submissions by the SUBMISSION TIME among the class members. The
earlier the submission, the higher the rank. Note though, the leaderboard ONLY ranks those who
got FULL SCORE on the autograder part of the assignment. For example, if you and another
student both got a full score, and you submitted earlier, your leaderboard name will appear
would appear at the bottom of the leaderboard if your submission scored less than FULL SCORE
on the autograder part of the assignment.
ranking.

You must include the two files described in the “To Receive Credit” section above. One file
needs to be submitted as an Excel spreadsheet, while the other a PDF. Sheet 1 must be formatted
as described above.
You must also submit all graphs in PDF form. The easiest way to do this is to copy the Excel
graphs into Word using COPY followed by PASTE IMAGE. (It may also be listed as Paste
Picture.) Once all graphs are in the word doc and nicely formatted and sized, you can save the
document as a PDF. We require that you submit as a PDF rather than a word document because
formatting is sometimes compromised in the transfer for word documents, but PDFs always
transfer exactly as you formatted it. This file must have a title of the following format
Project3.pdf.
All graphs need to be in BOTH on Sheet 1 of the excel file AND separately, in the PDF file.
Your submission must have NO hidden rows or columns.
Grading Rubric for Project 3 (each element must be completely correct to receive credit; no
partial credit given)
Required Element 1 is correct
Required Element 2 is correct
Required Element 3 is correct
Required Element 4 is correct
Required Element 5 is correct
1 point
1 point
1 point
1 point
1 point

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